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Rita could equal $5 gas
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Posted by: Hardlyworkin
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Remember when gas spiked to $3-plus a gallon after Hurricane Katrina? By this time next week, that could seem like the good old days.
Weather and energy experts say that as bad as Hurricane Katrina hit the nation's supply of gasoline, Hurricane Rita could be worse.
Katrina damage was focused on offshore oil platforms and ports. Now the greater risk is to oil-refinery capacity, especially if Rita slams into Houston, Galveston and Port Arthur, Texas.
"We could be looking at gasoline lines and $4 gas, maybe even $5 gas, if this thing does the worst it could do," said energy analyst Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover. "This storm is in the wrong place. And it's absolutely at the wrong time," said Beutel.
Michael Schlacter, chief meteorologist at Weather 2000, said Rita now appears most likely to hit between Port Arthur and Corpus Christi, Texas, sometime between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning.
Just about all of Texas's refinery capacity lies in that at-risk zone. (For a look at CNN.com's coverage of Hurricane Rita, click here.)
"There is no lucky 7-10 split scenario to use a bowling analogy," he said. "If you're [a refiner] within 200 miles, you're going to feel the effect."
Compounding Katrina's impactWhen Katrina hit, 15 refineries, nearly all in Louisiana and Mississippi, with a combined capacity of about 3.3 million barrels a day were shut down or damaged, according to the Energy Department. That represented almost 20 percent of U.S. refining capacity.
Within a week, almost two-thirds of that damaged capacity had resumed some operations, according to the department. But four refineries with nearly 900,000 barrels a day of capacity are still basically shut down.
If Rita hits both the Houston-Galveston area, as well as the Port Arthur-Beaumont region near the Texas-Louisiana border, that could take out more than 3 million barrels of capacity a day, according to Bob Tippee, editor of the industry trade journal Oil & Gas Journal in Houston.
"Before Katrina, the system was already so tight that the worst-case scenario was for a disruption that took 250,000 barrels of capacity out of the picture. That would have been considered a major jolt," said Tippee.
"We're already in uncharted territory now. We can't project what happens from another shot the size of Katrina or worse."
Part of the problem is that skilled crews needed to make refinery repairs are already busy trying to fix the Katrina damage. That would extend recovery time from Rita.
"[Rita] could have a significant impact on supply and prices -- this really is a national disaster," Valero Energy (Research) CEO Bill Greehey in an interview with Reuters Tuesday evening.
Gas not the only concernProblems could spread beyond the gas pumps.
Tippee said that natural-gas prices could see a further spike, since so many of the offshore platforms off of Texas produce natural gas, not crude oil.
And while gasoline imports have helped bring gas prices down from record highs, there isn't as much potential for heating-oil imports, he noted.
"Gasoline tends to obscure everything, especially since we aren't paying heating bills right now," said Tippee. "But we were already looking at a winter fuel problem. We're about to take another hit that will cause a lot of problems."
Schlacter said even the oil platforms off the Louisiana Gulf Coast, which are not likely to take a direct hit from Rita, could be affected by large waves churning up the Gulf of Mexico as the storm passes to the south. Waves of as much as 40 to 50 feet could hit the platforms off the Texas Coast, he estimated.
Tippee said that production across the Gulf is already being affected by oil companies pulling workers off platforms ahead of the storm. And it's not just domestic oil being interrupted.
The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), the nation's largest gateway for overseas oil, stopped accepting deliveries of its 1.2 million barrels of oil a day Wednesday afternoon due to high seas, LOOP spokeswoman Barb Hesterman told Reuters. She said the disruption was expected to be "for a short time."
But if Katrina is any guide, it could take several days after Rita passes for production to resume even at oil and gas platforms that escape damage.
"There were several days where if you could have gotten out to the platform, you could have started it back up, but you couldn't find the boats or helicopters you needed to get back to the platforms," he said
That's all we need right now $5 a gallon gas and gas lines.
Posted by: jojomataketa
2005 Hurricane Names
weather.com
June 1, 2005; 12:00 a.m. ET
In 1953, The National Hurricane Center began naming storms, rather than relying on the old system of map coordinates for identification. Originally, all storms were named for women, but, starting in 1979, men's and women's names were alternated.
An international committee of the World Meteorological Organization now creates and maintains the annual lists. Names are used on a six-year rotation, meaning the 2005 list will come up again in 2011. (See this year's hurricane season outlook) Names of especially damaging and deadly storms are retired. From the 2004 list, Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne -- four major hurricanes that struck Florida -- will not reappear when the list returns in 2010.
On this year's list, Franklin and Lee replace Floyd and Lenny, which were retired in 1999.
For 2005, Atlantic tropical storms will be named:
<LI>Arlene
<LI>Bret
<LI>Cindy
<LI>Dennis
<LI>Emily
<LI>Franklin
<LI>Gert
<LI>Harvey
<LI>Irene
<LI>Jose
<LI>Katrina
<LI>Lee
<LI>Maria
<LI>Nate
<LI>Ophelia
<LI>Philippe
<LI>Rita
<LI>Stan
<LI>Tammy
<LI>Vince
<LI>Wilma
Posted by: forwardone
No jojo on that list then? 
Geoff
Posted by: Rog
No Rog? LOL!
No doubt about it - The Oil industry will be crippled.
Posted by: golddust
Jojo:
(could that be a referral link in your sig?)
golddust
Posted by: golddust
BUT SERIOUSLY- There has always been a lot of smoke and mirrors involved with pricing O&G, based on demand, supply and reserves, and of course how much the oil patch wants to give up at 'low' barrel prices. "W", being a Texas oilman knows the story. Oil companies have capped off wells just waiting for the price of oil to jump to make it worthwhile to "produce". Looks like they may have shot themselves in the foot because they can't access those capped reserves themselves.
In the meantime, there was price gouging going on in reaction to Katrina shortages, but now "W" says the gov't is going to keep an eye on things. (Asking that folks don't "top off" their gas tanks when they fill up), (and why NOT???). People running out of gas trying to get out of town in TX....
Boy, I just can't wait to see what the price of heating oil is going to jump to this winter. Wonder if "W" is prepared for the lack of spending and disposable money come WINTER.
Think the economy is bad now?
golddust
Posted by: betrdanevr
It's time to stock up on sweat suits! 